Cape Cod Market conditions for late 2011

Our Cape Cod market continues to show strength in the last 2 quarters, as Buyers overcame concerns about economy and snapped up the best available properties. Cape Cod sales volume in 2011 is down about 10% compared to 2010 and median price dropped 2% for the same period. This is reasonable for the current situation, and is good considering 2010 sales were buoyed by the government tax incentives. 2011 has had no artificial buying stimuli, so the sales this year have been truly free market.

Many Buyers and Sellers recognize that the ‘bottom’ is here-especially when calculating the cost to purchase-with interest rates at historic lows. The Second home/vacation buyers seem to be aware of this and have made a significant contribution to real estate sales this year. We have seen significant interest in beach properties, village properties in Cotuit, Osterville Centerville, and Marstons Mills

Pricing and preparing a home for sale has never been more crucial-Buyers will buy the ‘good’ properties-priced well and prepped for showing. Sellers realize that condition sells and pricing to the market is key to success.

Consumer confidence appears to be growing slowly, and this will likely increase the desire to make the investments that have been postponed due to uncertainty and negative news.

2012 should be a year of gradual improvement in the Cape Cod real estate market, as interest rates should remain low and prices for properties will have hit bottom and may start to rise by Mid Year as demand reduces the inventory backlog. We don’t expect prices to rise much in the next year, but more desirable locations and appropriately marketed properties could exceed this modest expectation.z

Until you can return to the Cape (or even better buy your vacation home here) enjoy this scene overlooking Nauset Marsh from Fort Hill area of Cape Cod National Seashore on a glorious November day

The 4th of July is the real start of summer on Cape Cod. We sometimes have cool cloudy weather well into June, so we anxiously await Julys more dependable summer weather. It was here in full measure this past weekend.

Fireworks courtesy of Oyster Harbors Club over Cotuit Bay on Saturday night-we watched from our boat in the harbor and it was spectacular. Cotuit beaches were full of observers, and because it is not publicized, there are few traffic issues and many view spots. Sunday was a play day for many-in the boat, on the beach, loads of year round and summer people hiking, biking and just hanging around Cotuit village and Loop Beach in Cotuit. If you want a total escape from any crowds on July 4, venture to Marstons Mills-just across Rt. 28-where you live enjoying the summer, but not impacted by the summer rush. Loaded with freshwater swimming and boating lakes, young families especially enjoy these beaches-typically uncrowded. See photos below-beachcombing on Sampson's Island- Cotuit, and sailing on Hamblin's Pond, Marstons Mills

If you have ever dreamed of owning a primary or second home or vacation home on Cape Cod, the opportunities have never been better.

Deb Schilling

As we enter the second half of 2011, the real estate forecast is partly  cloudy!  I have had a great first 6 months of 2011, and my Sellers and Buyers seem pleased to buy or sell their Cape Cod property.

We look ahead and some economic signs are troubling, but the activity here on Cape Cod seems to not always be directly affected as other areas of the country are. Second home buyers are purchasing properties for personal use, and/or for eventual retirement. There seems to be a trend toward down-sizing, too, as many of the larger homes remain unsold. The First Quarter 2011 statistics for Cape Cod and the Islands shows the number of sales down substantially by 41%, as compared to 2010, and yet the median price rose by 5.7%. This doesn’t mean prices are rising, yet it does show that there are more expensive houses selling as compared to the vast number of foreclosures that pulled the median prices down in 2010 (and created the larger number of sales in 2010-combined with the tax credit incentives).

I continue to work full time as an experienced real estate professional, and am ready to help you or your referrals with buying or selling decisions. Enjoy the phot below, showing one of only 2 bridges that access Cape Cod -we are an island unto ourselves!

I was asked to comment on the ‘holiday homes’ market for a Boston newspaper article to be published. I assembled statistics and snapshots of the market for that interview and here are my thoughts.

The short report is that the Cape Cod real estate market has been active in the First 3 months of 2011. First time buyers are still competing with second home ‘holiday’ home buyers for the properties under $300,000-which is the fastest moving segment, with only a 5 month ‘supply’ at this point-almost a balanced market on Cape Cod!

Sellers are listing homes, and they need to be ‘prettied up’ to sell successfully. We see that there is a significant difference in the success of selling a mint condition home vs. one that shows even a little ‘tired’. Price is of course a critical factor, but buyers are strongly gravitating toward homes that are most updated, clean and well maintained.

Buyers are buying on Cape Cod, but the pace slowed since last year at this time, when the Tax Credits were stimulating buying activity for First Time and ‘move up’ (or down) buyers. Our sales volume for Cape Cod is off by 40% from first quarter of 2010, BUT median prices are up by 5.7%. Because pending sales are up so significantly, I am confident that this volume deficit will be greatly reduced when May and June sales are reported.

Are prices going up? Not at this time-the median price increase is attributable, I believe, to the huge percentage of sales in the lower tier of pricing (below $200,000) in 2010. Simply said, not much in the more expensive price range (over $500,000) was selling at all on Cape Cod in early 2010! In 2011, we have fewer homes under $200,00 to sell.

What happens from here? Mint condition, well priced homes will continue to sell; homes needing maintenance and price adjustments will be shown and shown-to the frustration of Sellers and their agents. Higher interest rates are pressing at the gate, and I am very concerned about the impact that a point or more interest rate jump will have on Buyers’ ability and willingness to buy. A double dip is a strong possibility if this happens, as the Cape Cod housing recovery is fragile and spotty.

Where are the ‘hot spots?’ From ‘pending sales’ perspective, Towns with large second home opportunities seem to be leading. This doesn’t mean all pending sales are second homes, but it is an indicator to support the observation that second home (holiday home) buyers are heavily participating in our market.

Real Estate on Cape Cod-Been down so long it looks like up!

Prices to fall further vs real estate prices on uptick, interest levels rising vs affordability reduced. Jobs uncertain vs no double dip recession. Recent news is more optimistic, for sure, but always tempered with ‘as long as…’ or ‘but if’.

I have been digesting both the last quarter 2010 summaries and the 2011 outlooks, and the picture is not clear. Cape Cod’s real estate market is distinct from the rest of Massachusetts, as we are a ‘vacation home’ community within commuting distance to a major city with strong and diverse employment.

I would be naïve to suggest that Cape Cod Real Estate sales are not vulnerable to future economic uncertainty, but we may have taken our ‘hit’ and could be heading up in sales volume and average price in 2011.  Since January 1, 2011, we have had a substantial increase in Buyer traffic, precipitated by jump in interest rates from their 2010 lows, and by the prospect of significant activity on both the very low end of pricing and the luxury property segment. Sandwiched in between-the mid range houses from $300,000-1,000,000 there are buyers looking, but carefully considering each decision, and awaiting price reductions to motivate them to act.

In summary, we see bright signs ahead, with 2011 likely to be the transition year to a modest real estate recovery in 2012 for Cape Cod real estate. Asking prices on individual properties are not set to rise, but as I have said before, properties that show very well and are priced for the current competition have an excellent chance of getting sold in early 2011. See Chart below (from Cape and Islands MLS reports) showing inventory levels in December dropped to only 10 months at the current rate of sales-a great sign to demonstrate movement in market. If you have questions, or would like more information about the Cape Cod Real estate marekt, contact me at deb@onestophomes.com

Deborah Schilling,
…One yard at a time –selling Cape Cod real estate for 25 years, with focus on Villages of Barnstable and beyond, including Marstons Mills, Cotuit, Osterville, Centerville, Hyannis, Barnstable and West Barnstable.

In an article today on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, the verdict is in! Vacation home buying on Cape Cod (and elsewhere) is coming back. Low interest rates, stronger stock market, better economic outlook all indicate that 2011 will be a banner year for Cape Cod Real Estate.

To read the article, follow this link:http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704482704576071984006994652-lMyQjAxMTAxMDEwMDExNDAyWj.html 

Citing information from the above article, sales from coast to coast show significant increases.Quoting from the article in WSJ: "The comback,NAR economist, Lawrence Yun said, has been helped by gains in the stock market and an imporving economy, which have made wealthier Americans more upbeat about the future. 'It also implies that prices in some markets have come down so much that people are fighting for those properties', Mr Yun said, noting that demand is strongest in areas close to stable labor markets."

Cape Cod is very near Boston, which is a diversified and strong labor market. With many universities,bio tech, high tech and health care  jobs at top employers, values on Cape Cod have fallen, but not as much as remote vacation destinations. The Cape has commuters and is an easy destination for weekend second homeowners-from the whole Northeast.

I am personally seeing the phones ringing on a wide spectrum of property prices and locations since January 1. The buyers are coming off the sidelines to make decisions, before interest rates or rising prices for the most desirable locations cause homes to be out of reach.

Come on down-the weather in winter isn't perfect, but pretty good for New England. We love our outdoor activities in the winter-come see!

Deb Schilling--Selling Cape Cod Real Estate One Yard at a Time

Winter can be very special on Cape Cod. It is time for quiet walks along isolated walking paths and empty (of human company) beaches. There is lots to love about the opportunities to reflect amid the sunny cloudless days overlooking saltwater AND freshwater bodies of water. Just Saturday, I sat at Loop Beach in Cotuit on Cape Cod, and as others were walking and picking up shells and small items pushed up onto the beach, I opened up my sun roof to my car and enjoyed the pleasure of a warm sun heated car, with fresh air and small ocean waves lapping the shore as music to my ears.

It was Christmas in Cotuit day-Santa arrived by boat at the Cotuit Town Dock, there was a very nice Craft Fair with local artisans and crafters at Freedom Hall, gift shop was open at the Cotuit Historical Society and the Cahoon Museum. A great early winter day, with temperatures that invited a walk in the woods or at the beach.

There are many more year round residents in Cotuit, I think because of the milder days, and the beauty of winter. As a Realtor who lives in Cotuit, I am always pleased to have the chance to 'show off' our village and the other villages in Barnstable and the Cape to folks who might consider relocating here as year round residents or as second home or vacation home owners. Enjoy these photos I took while walking one of my favorite seaside trails here on Cape Cod.

Winter berries on walk along shore on woodland path on Cape Cod

Winter View over water back to land December on Cape Cod

The Recession is Over! Long Live the Recovery!

Unfortunately this proclamation is a bit tongue in cheek. The Recession has been declared 'over'. The recovery is in its very early stages, but I believe it will be a long slow climb out-hence 'long live the recovery'.

We have seen tempting bits of good economic and real estate news, such as the recent report of both increasing sales volume and increase in median price from 2009 to 2010. This is really great news, and yet does not mean prices are actually climbing. It means that more expensive properties are selling, and that is really positive. Last year in the first Quarter of 2009, 75% of the sales were UNDER $250,000, so it could only go up from there.

The good news has been tempered by the reality of our lagging economy. Higher unemployment claims have been documented and consumer confidence sunk unexpectedly in the most recent report. There are still many areas of the Economy that are not on firm footing, and that will affect the Real Estate recovery nationwide.

What about here on Cape Cod, in my primary market areas from The Bridges to Dennis (focusing most intently on Towns of Barnstable-including villages of Marstons Mills, Cotuit, Barnstable and West Barnstable, Osterville, Centerville & Hyannis), Sandwich and Mashpee? I watch the daily activity carefully, and there are many new listings coming on the market daily. Although properties are selling, they are quickly being replaced with new listings. In some cases, the new listings seem to be coming on with optimistic pricing, based on the surge of activity in the last quarter of 2009. That may help to sell some properties that have been on the market for some time, and have recognized that the Market is not supporting unrealistic asking prices of the new listings. Price reductions are carefully followed on the Internet by active Buyer prospects, and when properties are priced right, we see offers coming, and sales completed.

There is real cause for concern later in 2010, after the Tax Credit expires, and the possible impending flood of more expensive houses coming into foreclosure. For buyers, it might seem wise to wait, but the spectre of increased mortgage interest rates could negate the gain of a lower price point. For sellers, it is wise to price the property correctly now to take advantage of the buyer activity we are seeing.

Winter still has a grip here-although we only received about 4-6 inches of snow, I like to think that by mid-February, the worst of Winter is behind us. The snow is melting fast this time, and with it I hope that buyers realize their opportunities to take of advantage of the Federal Tax Credit for both First Time Buyers and qualified Repeat Buyers are running out soon.

In Cotuit and Marstons Mills, we have a good selection of properties for sale in many price ranges. Last year at this time I had several listings in Cotuit, 3 of which sold in 2009, and right now I have only 1. Cotuit seems to be 'hot' right now-there are still options, but the well priced listings and attractive opportunities to live in this delightful seaside village are in short supply. A quick visit to my website www.onestophomes.com (click onto 'Express Search') will show you what is currently for sale in our Cape Cod Multiple Listing Service.

I have 4 listings of Marstons Mills real estate for sale right now-wide price ranges, and 3 are Waterfront properties. Living on the water seems to be everyone's dream of the perfect piece of Cape Cod real estate. What is special about Marstons Mills waterfront properties is that there are beautiful clean freshwater ponds to enjoy both the view and the water activities (swimming, paddling in canoes or kayaks, small craft boating and sailing, and this year ice fishing or skating). There is also Saltwater front property available, too. On inlets, estuaries, deepwater coves and bays-again with pricing to suit everyone's budget for Cape Cod real estate investment.

If you are not aware of the soon to expire Tax Credit opportunity, please view my earlier post with a link to a quick explanation to determine if you might qualify.

With mortgage interests rates likely to rise soon, and buying opportunities galore, Sellers are anxious to see their Cape Cod real estate sell this Spring. For Cape Cod Real Estate Buyers, if you buy now, you will be a homeowner in time for the daffodils and other Spring things here on Cape Cod-and particularly my own personal favorite places-Marstons Mills and Cotuit.

 If you would like to know more about this hidden secrets here on Cape Cod, visit my website at www.onestophomes.com and view information about these villages, and get to know the Mid Cape area, the Town of Barnstable and the activities we enjoy most living here.

Deb

 Spring daffodils on Cape Cod

 Kayaking on Cotuit Bay

I just read an article published as a result of a survey done to determine housing needs and wants of Buyers 55+ years. What is tops on their list from this survey? Easy home maintenace and repair! Not organized social activities.

To meet this need, I have a reliable and professional team of support persons in the Trades and Professional Services that will fit the bill. Owning a home on Cape Cod need not be stressful. I will connect you with my Preferred Professionals, and assure you that these contractors and and service people will deliver on what they promise. These are not the typical, much maligned Cape Cod Contractors. They will show up, perform a professional service and charge a fair price. I do not recommend anyone that I can vouch for, and I look for reliability, responsiveness, competitive pricing and integrity. Any referrals I make reflect on my Cape Cod Real Estate business, and a poor referral from me will damage my reputation more than I care to imagine.

If you are concerned about buying on Cape Cod, as a mature buyer, a senior citizen, or just a busy professional who wants an enjoyable experience with a second home or permanent home on Cape Cod, please contact me to represent you in the purchase of this property. If you know someone who has had a negative experience owning here on Cape Cod, I would be pleased to share my Preferred Professionals on Cape Cod with them, too.

To read the full text of the survey results done by National Association of Home Builders and MetLife Mature Market Institute, click this link

http://rismedia.com/2010-01-26/mature-market-home-buyers-look-beyond-buildings-desire-services/

Would you rather be Golfing on Cape Cod at the Town owned Marstons Mills Golf Course, watching an incredible sunset from a Cape Beach OR cleaning gutters, repainting the house, raking leaves, or supervising a contractor you cannot trust to do the Job you hired him/her for?!

Call me for the best Preferred Professionals on Cape Cod!

May you find Fair Winds and Following Seas every day

Deb

Deborah Schilling