Rise and shine! I got up with the birds on Friday to attend a Breakfast meeting with excellent speakers offering perspective on Cape Cod Economic and Housing Outlook. Of course, it was important to incorporate big picture economics, as that affects Cape Cod. The forecast is Sun with Clouds-no surprise to those of us who see glimmers of positive signs, dimmed by realities of a long slow recovery.
Cape Cod economy is largely Real Estate based-not as much in new building, but in remodelling, and ancillary services needed by a large population of Vacation Home owners and retirees. Our jobs are largely generated by small (very small) businesses-again substantially in the housing related sector. We have some manufacturing jobs, some High Tech, substantial Health Care related positions and seasonal Tourism related jobs, but our economy is weak right now, in terms of job growth and local consumer confidence.
That said, the second home/retirement home Buyers, as well as a few-mostly local-investors are taking advantage of low prices to jump into Cape Cod Real Estate market.This is beginning to move up the price point from just the low end selling well ($250,000 and below) to up to $500,000 and higher properties beginning to have serious action.
Most speakers at the Breakfast felt our Real Estate is bouncing along the bottom, and likely to do this for some time to come. The factors that keep prices from rising with demand are the weak job market (little growth-especially through Spring 2010 locally at minimum), limited availability of financing for new start up businesses (who are the ones most likely to lead our economic recovery here-as in the past), high cost and availability of 'Jumbo' mortgages (which so many of our properties require).
We are likely, it is said, to see a Recovery in the Shape of an "L" with wiggles in the horizontal leg. We fell off sharply from 2008, and appear to have bottomed, and there are likely to be occasional lifts and positive signs, only to be brought back down until there is solid and sustained evidence of recovery. Then lending will resume-hopefully in a more reasoned way than when loans were provided with no thought of how they would be repaid, or the clamping down that virtually stopped lending in its tracks, except for Govemernment purchased products.
Realtors are said to be the most optimistic profession, and while that is true, in 25 years of my involvement in Real Estate, there positive outcomes in every market-there are always Sellers who need to sell, and there are always buyers who need or want to buy. If the volume and prices are 'off' then the competition is more fierce, and as a Realtor, my job always has been and will be to offer the most professional advice to help my clients achieve the goals they set. Sometimes that means only offering advice until the market changes, sometimes it involves helping the clients through a difficult buying or selling process-it is all part of what I do!
Deb
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